More than 3,500 shooting incidents occurred in Chicago in 2021. In a region familiar with gun violence, these statistics continue to shock both policymakers and the public. Demands for action have come from all quarters, including national politicians and pundits, community activists, and grieving family members.

Complicating policy discussions of gun crime is that the concern over lethal gun violence has resulted in almost all forms of unlawful behavior involving a firearm being viewed as “violent” and involving “violent” individuals. For example, many forms of illegal gun possession are legally classified as equivalent to violent crimes. Part of the logic to this classification is that someone illegally possessing a firearm is just one or two decisions or actions away from a shooting or homicide, and that illegal gun carrying is an indicator of a propensity for violence.

However, what has been lacking from policy discussions is a thorough understanding of what the characteristics are of those arrested for gun possession and other gun crimes. Similarly, the argument for “tougher laws,” such as mandatory prison sentences and longer lengths of stay in prison for those illegally possessing guns, is based on the assumption that the punishments imposed for these crimes are not severe enough.